$19,000,000,000,000.00OBAMA

OBAMA'S HYPOCRISY CAUGHT ON TAPE

OBAMA'S NATIONAL DEBT TALKING POINTS

We will start to threaten the $20 trillion level on U.S. government debt later this year. The national debt is currently just short of $19.27 trillion. We become more indebted to the tune of $12,000 every second and approximately $1.3 billion every day.

The debt was exactly $10.63 trillion on the day Obama took office.  The latest calculation from Treasury shows the debt has now hit $19.26 trillion.  This is by far the largest increase in debt under any U.S. president in our history. For comparison, the national debt increased $4.9 trillion during the eight-year presidency of George W. Bush, and he is the 2nd worst debt-offender behind Obama.

U.S. Debt Clock: http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Related:

National Debt Insanity From Joe Biden

The United States of Insolvency

Comments

[DailyBail]

National Debt Is Growing $3 Million Per Minute, Has Increased $4.2 Trillion In Obama's First 945 Days

http://dailybail.com/home/national-debt-is-growing-3-million-per-minute-has-increased.html

[DailyBail]

Land of The Free And Home of The Broke: The United States of Insolvency

http://dailybail.com/home/land-of-the-free-and-home-of-the-broke-the-united-states-of.html

I wrote this in 2009, in the first month I launched the site and gave predictions on where the debt would be thru the years. There are no videos, just my thoughts. Let me know how close my predictions were to coming true on the debt numbers. I haven't looked yet.

[DailyBail]

Comptroller General: National Debt Will Soon Eclipse GDP

http://dailybail.com/home/comptroller-general-national-debt-will-soon-eclipse-gdp.html

[DailyBail]

The Four Words NEVER Heard In Washington

http://dailybail.com/home/the-four-words-never-heard-in-washington.html

[DailyBail]

#BernieSanders: "If I were to go before Wall Street, I would tell them they were bailed out against my vote."

http://twitter.com/FOX59/status/725475934564933633

This is from Bernie's speech at IU tonight.

[DailyBail]

#BernieSanders: "Even if you are powerful and a billionaire, if you break the law, you will pay the price."

Wild standing O for @BernieSanders stump lines on Clinton releasing Wall Street speech transcripts.

http://twitter.com/ChrisJansing/status/725475698639560704

Crowd photo with this link

[DailyBail]

Cruz, hoping to revive struggling campaign, taps Fiorina as No. 2

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-cruz-idUSKCN0XO26H

[DailyBail]

Half of Americans think presidential nominating system 'rigged'

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-primaries-poll-idUSKCN0XO0ZR

[DailyBail]

Bobby Knight: Trump is the most prepared man in history to step in as President

http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2016/04/27/bobby-knight-trump-is-most-prepared-man-in-history-to-step-in-as-president.html

[skinflint]

You were close. Just sayin.

[Nona]

National Debt? I DIDN"T incur this debt, I do NOT owe it. And will NOT accept it.

If the others here, or worldwide, accept it, that's their problem.

Remember, there are MORE of us, than there is of THEM.

[Mr Bill]

Yep, President Obama is definitely putting a huge spin ion the Federal debt and totally misrepresents the facts behind the scene.But, virtually all of the politicians and media talking heads obfuscate and confuse important underlying information that would better clarify some factors that shine a much clearer light on the historical Federal debt picture.

I took a strong interest in the total Federal debt back in 2001 and have written editorials and blogged on various sites since then. I have concluded that the politicians and talking heads do not want the public to have any clear grasp of the debt situation. They seem to continuously push the confusion and propaganda to keep the citizens in the dark. Yet, if we citizens put aside the propaganda and devote just a little effort to "shining the light" on the Federal debt picture. Hint: the Federal debt over time behaves similarly to a bank loan with compound interest.on the balance. But, for the Federal debt, a mild complication is that the Federal debt is fully open ended - the starting principal, the payment schedule, the annual interest rate, virtually the duration, etc are not necessarily fixed.



Well, what is total Federal debt and annual deficit? A simple definition for the debt is the total cumulative debts for each year over the entire history of the USA. A simple definition for annual deficit for a specific year is the difference between the total debt at the end of the specific fiscal year and the total debt at the end of the previous fiscal year. Another useful definition for annual deficit for a specific year equals the difference between the total expenses and total revenues for the specific year. Actually, the annual surplus could also be discussed, but the US government has not run a surplus for any year since 1970. These simple definitions should be very useful in creating a rational basis for looking at options to solve this messy problems.

Some of the financial news outlets publish historical data graphs for the total Federal debt over various number of years. The same debt data is archived in the government archives. The typical graphs show the total Federal debt , Y ( Trillion $ ), over time, X (Years). These graphs tend to start low for the early years and get steeper as time duration increases. These $ versus time ( Y vs X ) curves are often called hockey stick or exponential growth curves. So, they have a name, but these graphs are not very useful to most people. But, there is a neat trick that can make it most useful. That is, use a spreadsheet (or handheld electronic calculator) to calculate the logarithm of Y, Ln(Y) and plot a graph of Ln(Y) versus T (old timers will recognize a semilog graph). If the semilog graph of Ln(Y) versus X is a perfect straight line, with constant slope over the time duration, the original Y versus T is "true" exponential growth. In real life, the semilog graph will have a constant "average" slope for the full time duration, with meandering about the "average" for various shorter time increments. The constant slope of the semilog graph translates into the equivalent compounding interest factor. For example, the rounded average slope for the semilog graph between 1970 and 2014 was 0.09 or 9 percent per year compounding on the total Federal debt, every year.Incidentally, the semilog graph meandered between 8 and 10 percent ( administration dependent ) for shorter time periods over that 44 year period.

So, let's look at some simple calculations based on the above comments. First let me write out an important straight line equation for the semilog format. The equation, converted to simple debt ratios and time differences is

Ln (Y/Yo) = SLP * ( X - Xo )

where Xo is a selected starting year and Yo is the total Federal debt for that specific starting year. This is a straight line equation with a constant slope, SLP, and a zero X,Y intercept We usually speak of SLP as a fraction, but refer to it as a percent (0.09 fraction vs 9 percent). I usually run regression analysis on a data set to determine the SLP, then use the above equation for calculations.. A scientific calculator is useful to calculate Ln(Y/Y0) from Y/Yovalues or to calculate Y/Yo from the ln(Y/Y0) values.

There are two other useful equations, both based on the above equation. The first is rearrangement of the equation above to get
SLP = Ln(Y/Yo) / (X-Xo)

which provides an estimate of the slope based on appropriate Y/Yo versus (X-Xo) data or assumptions. The other equation provides a rule of thumb called the doubling time. Doubling time is defined as the range of (X - Xo) time
for the total Federal debt to double. That equation is

Doubling Time (years) = 70 / (100 x SLP)

This ain't magic! 70 is a roundoff of 100 x Ln(2.0).
.
So, using the same numbers quoted in the above text "The debt was exactly $10.63 trillion on the day Obama took office. The latest calculation from Treasury shows the debt has now hit $19.26 trillion". Obama has been in office for 7 years, so we can say the total Federal debt has increased from $10.63 T to $19.26T in that 7 years. We can calculate

Y/Yo = 19.26 / 10.63 = 1.8119 and (X -Xo) =7.
Ln(Y/Yo) = Ln( 1.8119) = 0.5944

The second equation above allowed us to use the reported total Federal debt data over 7 years of Obama calculated as
SLP = Ln(Y/Yo) / (X-Xo) = 0.5944 / 7 = 0.085 (8.5 percent) compound rate.

The third equation above allowed us to use that compound rate estimate to project estimate the number of years for the total Federal debt to double. So, we calculate
Doubling Time = 70 / 8.5 = 8.2 years.

Do you get the meaning here? This simple calculation shows that the Obama administration clearly doubled the debt in about 8 years! But the same equation shows that most prior adminstrations over the past 40+ years also had about the same 8 year debt doubling time. The doubling time difference are only 7 - 9 years for compound rates in the 8 -10 year range, period. The critical difference is that the earlier administrations started with doubling small debts, but as the total debt magnitude for any year increased, the annual deficits adding to next years debt continued at, basically, the same high compound rate, close to 9 percent. Now here we are at $19.26 trillion total Federal debt. This kind of debt growth with a fixed compound rate results only from the pattern of making each years annual deficit to be a constant fraction of lthe prior years total debt.

Let's take my first published analysis back in 2010. This was my first published report on total Federal debt. The archived historical data from Xo =1970, Yo = 0.371$T to X = 2010 , Y =13.56$ was processed through a spread sheet and determined SLP = 0.093 (rounded for convenience to SLP = 0.09)
Estimate Y in 2010 from only 1970 data, SLP=0.09.
Calculate (X-Xo) = (2010 - 1970) = 40 years. Calculate SLP *(X-Xo)= 0.09*40=3.60.
Ln(Y/Y0) = 3.60
Y/Yo = Exp(3.6) = 36.5982.
Y = 36.5982 x Yo = 36.5982 x 0.371$T = 13.58 $T.
So, with Yo = 0.371 $T(starting back in Yo = 1970 with a 9 pct compound annual growth for 40 years ) there is an estimated $13.58T$ total Federal debit versus the official $13.56T This estimate was right on.and I think it is truly impressive that the 40 year model was so reliable.

I then switched to an analysis from Xo = 2000, Yo = $5.674T and ran regression analysis through 2014. The key result
is SLP = 0.088 for Xo =2000 to X = 2014. So, as a reasonable estimate. SLP = 0.09 is a reasonably descriptive compound rate for the growth of total Federal debt. We are on a 9 percent compound debt growth curve until it collapses. Our current 19 $T becomes 38$T in 2024, 76$T in 2032, etc. Or it simply collapses.

[DailyBail]

$38 trillion in 2024...

I think cbo estimates $28 trillion for 2024...

What's $10 trillion between friends.

Great post Bill.

Ticking time bomb doesn't even begin to describe it.

[S. Gompers]

Excellent post Bill.

Great post from 2009 DB, here is a chart on the debt history you might find interesting...

http://useconomy.about.com/od/usdebtanddeficit/a/National-Debt-by-Year.htm

[DailyBail]

GOMP

I've been waiting for a graph/chart like that for 25 years. That is phenomenal information on the history of the debt.

http://useconomy.about.com/od/usdebtanddeficit/a/National-Debt-by-Year.htm

[Sagebrush]

Obama almost doubled the debt in less then 8 years yet the nation's infrastructure is in worse shape then when he took office. Roads, bridges, damns and the power grid are in terrible condition. It's time to tar and feather most of the crooked politicians and hang the ringleaders and their bosses on Wall Street.

[Mr Bill]

The $38 trillion projection is consistent with the official Treasury Department historical debt archives. The Ln(Y/Yo) analysis from my earlier post consistently averaged about 9 percent compound rate over the past 45 years. Thus, the total Federal debt has been doubling about every 8 years since 1970. Of course, the earlier doublings involved mush smaller amounts of debt. But, here we are looking at doubling the current $19 trillion to double again by 2024. Is this any surprise?

I feekl that our brilliant and bipartisan analysts at the CBO are making a serious under projection. Again, history tells us that the debt can be expected to double from the current $19 trillion debt in 8 more years (2024)., unless something quite drastic and extreme should occur, like a lead balloon. Such an event could be unexpected chaos or managed chaos. But, effectively, the annual compound rate must drop substantially from the historical 9 percent average. Okay, what might that drop be? Assume that the CBO estimate for 2024 is indeed $28 trillion. Go back to the above Ln(Y/Yo) analysis. In this case Yo = $19 T in Xo = 2016 and Y = $28 T in X=2024. This works out to a projected SLP or compound rate

SLP= Ln(28/19) / 8 = 0.048 or 4.8 percent.

This translates into a new doubling time 70/4.8 = 15 years. So, after the politicians andFederal agencies accomplish this feat, we double from the current $19 trillion debt in 2016 back to the $38 trillion debt in 15 years (2031 instead of 2024). It seems the government is still kicking the same can down the road, just a little further.

What about the annual deficit. I propose that, If the government expects to be at $28 trillion in 2024 instead of the $38 trillion,
then the annual deficits must be significantly reduced in some way. How much reduction? A good approximation for the annual deficit is
Annual Deficit( this year), $ trillion = SLP * Total Federal debt (last year)

If we magically reduce the annual deficit immediately,assume the $19 trillion debt is the most recent figure. Then

Annual Deficit @ 9 pct) = 0.09 * $19 trillion = $ !.7 trillion
and
Annual Deficit @ 4.8 pct) = 0.048 * $19 trillion = $ 0.9 trillion

Thus, the approximate scale of annual deficit reduction is on the order of $ 0.8 trillion PER YEAR. The politicians tend to obfuscate and manipulate the debates, even issue false data. But, they always take pride in kicking the debt can down the road, and make modest laws that show $ trillion reductions that impacts the debt over DECADES, not YEARS.

It is needed, but not likely to happen! The country needs less taxes and more security and more options for citizens. These lead to debt growth , not debt reduction.

[DailyBail]

BILL

CBO estimates the federal debt will grow by $10 trillion over the next 9 years. It's in this clip, which is well worth watching if you haven't seen it.

http://dailybail.com/home/the-four-words-never-heard-in-washington.html

And I'm not quibbling with your numbers. It's the magic of compound interest.

[Mr Bill]

I think we are on the same page.We understand that we are not quibbling with the numbers. But, if we were, we could do this same type of analysis that should lead to a rational resolution. Which is the most likely debt increase, $19 trillion in 8 years, $10 trillion in 8 years, $9 trillion in 10 years or $10 trillion in 9 years? If we wanted to do it, we could analyze each case and open up a basis for resolution.

Yes, it does reduce to the magic of compound interest. That is what the basic equations I included in my previous posts were all about compound interest. My term, SLP is the same as a loan compound.interest rate. My main point in my last post, using my numbers, was the fact that a 9 percent compound rate (compound interest) requires approximately $1.7 trillion annually to maintain it, while the proposed 4.8 percent compound rate requires a reduction to approximately $0.9 trillion annually. We are looking at a potentially unaccountable $0.8 trillion annual difference, between historical and CBO projections over the next "decade". Is this $800 billion difference due to real cost reductions, write downs or hidden accounts. I don't know, but I would say some serious dialog about the missing $0.8 trillion is needed. Will you take the bet that the CBO will revise their estimates up / down. later?

I will leave this enjoyable dialog with a real anecdotal tale of hiding. official data.I found that the Treasury reports began to simply not make realistic monthly reports. So, the reported annual deficit was understated for several months before fiscal year end. Then the accounts are adjusted over time. Now check it out! The official total Federal debt in 2015 and 2014 was $18.151 and $17.824. This gives a crude SLP estimate of 2 percent. Then after 09/30 the agencies revised the numbers to $19.2 trillion and the new SLP was about 8.1. This looks like hanky panky.

[S. Gompers]

You are welcome DB, you know me, just an old history buff. You can use that on anyone who pretends one party or the other always abolishes/ reduces the debt when they are in office. As you know, this will eventually not turn out well...