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Fed's Lacker 'Chastened' By 2011 GDP Forecast Error, Admits Fed Policy Effects Inflation More Than Growth

Nothing dramatic here, but we'll always post the quote when a Federal Reserve President tells the truth.



WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker on Monday said he was "chastened" by his incorrect GDP forecast for 2011 of above 3%, when it's likely to come in around 1.75%. He blamed the miss on the acceleration in commodity prices and the Japan earthquake as well as the lingering aftermath of the past recession, including "the still-overbuilt housing market." Lacker, who becomes a voting member in 2012 of the Federal Open Market Committee, said another lesson learned is that inflation can accelerate despite elevated levels of unemployment. Lacker, who forecasts 2012 U.S. growth of between 2% and 2.5%, added that monetary policy is often credited "with entirely too much influence on real growth" and that its main impact is on inflation.



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Reader Comments (8)

What I find interesting is the FED at the beginning of the month warned the top banks to account for -8% GDP in 2012

They were running stress tests in negative levels not positive.

Who are these idiots think they are kidding!!

GDP is not a true a reflection of the US balance sheet.
Dec 19, 2011 at 7:35 PM | Unregistered Commenteryou kiddin me?
Now, there's a refreshing brush with reality. Since the economy is so dependent on consumer confidence and spending, t5his is the time of year that they should admit that they're really pushing holiday shopping numbers, Don't wait for the sales. Shove your way through the crowds at China Mart and pay top dollar for stuff you could get cheap after the rush. Monetary policy is inside out and backwards.

Dec 19, 2011 at 8:10 PM | Unregistered CommenterGeorge Forfa
Tuesday, Dec. 20th, 2011 – This can’t get any more bizarre, can it? The past 24 hours have seen stories about the debt crisis that defy logic and common sense. We see numbers on reviving the EFSF that are laughable. They haven’t found out that they can’t “Ponzi” everything. Even with borrowed debt, they have to put it on the table, right up front. The $1 Trillion or more that the Federal reserve is reportedly ready to kick in is still a fraction the size of the problem. We’ve seen stories about how that can be leveraged, too. Multiplied debt built this problem, and multiplied debt is supposed to fix it? I don’t think so. Apparently, bankers flunked math badly enough to believe that numbers don’t mean anything. The real world says, think again, count everything over, from the beginning. Speaking of the real world, it’s falling apart, out there. A lot of people are getting an education on how to live on zero dollars

Dec 20, 2011 at 10:07 AM | Unregistered CommenterGeorge Forfa
Fed up? End The Fed vote for Ron Paul and not another Establishment Puppet!
Dec 20, 2011 at 11:42 AM | Unregistered CommenterRC Andrwes
George is accurate and stated the situation well. However RC is mistaken if he believes that Paul has even a ghost of a chance at winning more than a handfull of primary elections. He is correct on his views on the FED, let's put him in charge of the Fed, but he is way off on other issues that a new president will need to address. That said, I would vote for Paul over Obama in a nano second and never regret it for even a tenth of a nano second! Frankly, Washington does not seem to be listening and I think it must be the influence of so many incumbents teaching the new guys how to work the system. I am convinced that we would be money ahead, time ahead and smarter if we truly replaced every single elected official and staff member now in Washington! Obviously, I would start with the big white house and work my way through the rest of DC. Oh, and by the way, Merry Christmas everyone!
Dec 20, 2011 at 2:30 PM | Unregistered CommenterCraig
Love your thinking Craig, and agree that RP may not have all the answers we need. However, currently we have none of the answers, so RP would be a step in the right direction. Rick S or even Michelle B would be okay choices, but Mitt and Newt will simply be more of the same. Term limits, no pension and no raise unless the economy is growing is the answer for congress. Unfortunately too many of us blame the other guy's congress person. We can only vote out our own, and EVERYONE needs to do that!
Dec 20, 2011 at 7:40 PM | Unregistered CommenterSherm
So let me see if I got this right.

70% of our military have pretty much selected the next Commander-in –Chief with their support of Ron Paul.

Everyone including the opposition who are all about voting themselves more of other people’s money agree Ron Paul has the answers save maybe on his foreign policy stance/s.

Even on this thread everyone agrees Ron Paul has the answers and they would vote for him but yet and somehow he can’t win.

Do you understand the query I am in here?
Dec 21, 2011 at 8:23 AM | Unregistered CommenterRC Andrwes
As a fifty four year old man who has watched the economy for forty years of that, I find it ridiculous a Fed official could make such a foolish comment. In that postion, a qualified person has access to far more information than any regular citizen might have, and should have an education on economics which makes mine look kindergarten.
To state with surprise, the printing of fiat currency with every bit of economic activity in the negative, would have more impact on inflation than on job production when the current federal government trend is to prevent any job growth at all, and to ensure the economy continues to fall, is the height of ignorance or the height of "double-speak".
We are at a place we can only visit once: unless we see the very real precipice, and do what we must do to avoid going over the edge and down. For a hundred years, our monetary system has been under constant attack, with continual inflation as the only consistancy, while most of our once American institutions have been deliberately turned into socialist teaching institutions, whether it be child care centers, kindergarten, grade schools, high schools, or colleges, all start on the founding premise of socialism as the ultimate end goal for our form of society.
The "progressives" who brought this to us have asked for our "compromise", from the beginning, and got it, yet unlike any other form of social interaction, there has never been any "compromise of intent or principle" on the part of the progressives, while every bit of compromise on the part of those who would conserve the republic as it was established, requires compromising on the fundemental principles which form "the republic".
At the current point we are at, inflation has reached its zenith, having reduced the dollar below 1% of its established value, and all inflation from this point out is "hyper-inflation", with it becoming necessary to now "double the money supply" and thereby "halve the value of the dollar", to inflate sufficiently to create a few weeks of space before the debt ceiling it struck again. The next time, when it is doubled, our dollar will be a quarter of what it is right now. The printing of fiat money has ceased to be a relevant means of allowing deficit government spending, and this has come precisely because of the utter failure of congress to act in accord with the Constitution, and write a budget.
In all my life, congress has yet to write a real budget. When you write a budget for your household, you always start with your income, your paycheck, written out at the top, and the list of bills which must be paid to stay in the house and keep power on, and food on the table. Everything else comes after, nothing comes before such things, yet when congress writes a budget, they start with what was spent last year, they they add a percentage to it, ten percent say, suggesting that is reasonable, because America will grow, and so will revenues, and we will need more government. Then, knowing they deficit spent in the past year, they announce they will be cutting X billions from this program, and X billions from that, and in this way they are being fiscally responsible, by "severely slashing the budget", when they never wrote one, but only took the figures from the past, and added to them with one hand, while taking away with the other, and telling us the first hand means nothing, but the second hand, why it's the very heart and soul of fiscal responsibility, look they cut billions, but don't look too closely, because then you will see the trillion added before any was "cut".
We are asking our professional political class to ruin our nation for us, and take us down, if we don't completely change our ways, and choose, one time, to elect "Dr. No", and even electing him won't fix the problem. It is truly up to us. A president can call for the re-instatement of the Law over government, but if the vast majority of voters don't demand it, and do so long enough to make it matter, all the president can do is call. We can have a president demand congress put the federal government back in place, adhering to the last word and punctuation mark of the Constitution, but if We, The People, don't take a public stance demanding it with a great majority, it won't get done.
We can fix our Nation, but we have to completely change our ways to do it, and we have to stay changed, in order to keep it changed, because it is the nature of man to revert to fecklessness and failure, because the lazy will always be with us, and those who would drive them to do their duty will always be willing to rule over all. Our Nation was a runaway succes for almost a century, because The People dramatically changed their ways from what they did while under the rule of a ruthless government.
Since that time, we have allowed "ruthless government" to spring up and have consistently supported it in its demands, until it is even more demanding of us than the Empire's government. Were it imposed from the outside, we would revile it, and rebel against it, only because we allowed it to grow to be what it is, and we are accustomed to what we should be outraged over, do we docily accept it, and keep supporting it.
Dec 21, 2011 at 9:12 AM | Unregistered CommenterJohn McClain

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