Bernanke's Opening Statement -- We're Turning Japanese (Transcript & Video)
Video: Bernanke's prepared remarks -- July 21, 2010
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke tells Congress the economic outlook remains "unusually uncertain," and says the Fed is ready to take new steps to keep the recovery alive if the economy worsens.
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Video: The Vapors, Turning Japanese
Listen while reading below.
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Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.
July 21, 2010
Chairman Dodd, Senator Shelby, and members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.
Economic and Financial Developments
The economic expansion that began in the middle of last year is proceeding at a moderate pace, supported by stimulative monetary and fiscal policies. Although fiscal policy and inventory restocking will likely be providing less impetus to the recovery than they have in recent quarters, rising demand from households and businesses should help sustain growth. In particular, real consumer spending appears to have expanded at about a 2-1/2 percent annual rate in the first half of this year, with purchases of durable goods increasing especially rapidly. However, the housing market remains weak, with the overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses weighing on home prices and construction.
An important drag on household spending is the slow recovery in the labor market and the attendant uncertainty about job prospects. After two years of job losses, private payrolls expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially. In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009. Moreover, nearly half of the unemployed have been out of work for longer than six months. Long-term unemployment not only imposes exceptional near-term hardships on workers and their families, it also erodes skills and may have long-lasting effects on workers' employment and earnings prospects.
In the business sector, investment in equipment and software appears to have increased rapidly in the first half of the year, in part reflecting capital outlays that had been deferred during the downturn and the need of many businesses to replace aging equipment. In contrast, spending on nonresidential structures--weighed down by high vacancy rates and tight credit--has continued to contract, though some indicators suggest that the rate of decline may be slowing. Both U.S. exports and U.S. imports have been expanding, reflecting growth in the global economy and the recovery of world trade. Stronger exports have in turn helped foster growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
Inflation has remained low. The price index for personal consumption expenditures appears to have risen at an annual rate of less than 1 percent in the first half of the year. Although overall inflation has fluctuated, partly reflecting changes in energy prices, by a number of measures underlying inflation has trended down over the past two years. The slack in labor and product markets has damped wage and price pressures, and rapid increases in productivity have further reduced producers' unit labor costs.
My colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and I expect continued moderate growth, a gradual decline in the unemployment rate, and subdued inflation over the next several years. In conjunction with the June FOMC meeting, Board members and Reserve Bank presidents prepared forecasts of economic growth, unemployment, and inflation for the years 2010 through 2012 and over the longer run. The forecasts are qualitatively similar to those we released in February and May, although progress in reducing unemployment is now expected to be somewhat slower than we previously projected, and near-term inflation now looks likely to be a little lower. Most FOMC participants expect real GDP growth of 3 to 3-1/2 percent in 2010, and roughly 3-1/2 to 4-1/2 percent in 2011 and 2012. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to between 7 and 7-1/2 percent by the end of 2012. Most participants viewed uncertainty about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the majority saw the risks to growth as weighted to the downside. Most participants projected that inflation will average only about 1 percent in 2010 and that it will remain low during 2011 and 2012, with the risks to the inflation outlook roughly balanced.
One factor underlying the Committee's somewhat weaker outlook is that financial conditions--though much improved since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of economic growth in recent months. Notably, concerns about the ability of Greece and a number of other euro-area countries to manage their sizable budget deficits and high levels of public debt spurred a broad-based withdrawal from risk-taking in global financial markets in the spring, resulting in lower stock prices and wider risk spreads in the United States. In response to these fiscal pressures, European leaders put in place a number of strong measures, including an assistance package for Greece and €500 billion of funding to backstop the near-term financing needs of euro-area countries. To help ease strains in U.S. dollar funding markets, the Federal Reserve reestablished temporary dollar liquidity swap lines with the ECB and several other major central banks. To date, drawings under the swap lines have been limited, but we believe that the existence of these lines has increased confidence in dollar funding markets, helping to maintain credit availability in our own financial system.
Like financial conditions generally, the state of the U.S. banking system has also improved significantly since the worst of the crisis. Loss rates on most types of loans seem to be peaking, and, in the aggregate, bank capital ratios have risen to new highs. However, many banks continue to have a large volume of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight. With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank loans outstanding have continued to contract. Small businesses, which depend importantly on bank credit, have been particularly hard hit. At the Federal Reserve, we have been working to facilitate the flow of funds to creditworthy small businesses. Along with the other supervisory agencies, we issued guidance to banks and examiners emphasizing that lenders should do all they can to meet the needs of creditworthy borrowers, including small businesses.1 We also have conducted extensive training programs for our bank examiners, with the message that lending to viable small businesses is good for the safety and soundness of our banking system as well as for our economy. We continue to seek feedback from both banks and potential borrowers about credit conditions. For example, over the past six months we have convened more than 40 meetings around the country of lenders, small business representatives, bank examiners, government officials, and other stakeholders to exchange ideas about the challenges faced by small businesses, particularly in obtaining credit. A capstone conference on addressing the credit needs of small businesses was held at the Board of Governors in Washington last week.2 This testimony includes an addendum that summarizes the findings of this effort and possible next steps.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Federal Reserve's response to the financial crisis and the recession has involved several components. First, in response to the periods of intense illiquidity and dysfunction in financial markets that characterized the crisis, the Federal Reserve undertook a range of measures and set up emergency programs designed to provide liquidity to financial institutions and markets in the form of fully secured, mostly short-term loans. Over time, these programs helped to stem the panic and to restore normal functioning in a number of key financial markets, supporting the flow of credit to the economy. As financial markets stabilized, the Federal Reserve shut down most of these programs during the first half of this year and took steps to normalize the terms on which it lends to depository institutions. The only such programs currently open to provide new liquidity are the recently reestablished dollar liquidity swap lines with major central banks that I noted earlier. Importantly, our broad-based programs achieved their intended purposes with no loss to taxpayers. All of the loans extended through the multiborrower facilities that have come due have been repaid in full, with interest. In addition, the Board does not expect the Federal Reserve to incur a net loss on any of the secured loans provided during the crisis to help prevent the disorderly failure of systemically significant financial institutions.
A second major component of the Federal Reserve's response to the financial crisis and recession has involved both standard and less conventional forms of monetary policy. Over the course of the crisis, the FOMC aggressively reduced its target for the federal funds rate to a range of 0 to 1/4 percent, which has been maintained since the end of 2008. And, as indicated in the statement released after the June meeting, the FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.3
In addition to the very low federal funds rate, the FOMC has provided monetary policy stimulus through large-scale purchases of longer-term Treasury debt, federal agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). A range of evidence suggests that these purchases helped improve conditions in mortgage markets and other private credit markets and put downward pressure on longer-term private borrowing rates and spreads.
Compared with the period just before the financial crisis, the System's portfolio of domestic securities has increased from about $800 billion to $2 trillion and has shifted from consisting of 100 percent Treasury securities to having almost two-thirds of its investments in agency-related securities. In addition, the average maturity of the Treasury portfolio nearly doubled, from three and one-half years to almost seven years. The FOMC plans to return the System's portfolio to a more normal size and composition over the longer term, and the Committee has been discussing alternative approaches to accomplish that objective.
One approach is for the Committee to adjust its reinvestment policy--that is, its policy for handling repayments of principal on the securities--to gradually normalize the portfolio over time. Currently, repayments of principal from agency debt and MBS are not being reinvested, allowing the holdings of those securities to run off as the repayments are received. By contrast, the proceeds from maturing Treasury securities are being reinvested in new issues of Treasury securities with similar maturities. At some point, the Committee may want to shift its reinvestment of the proceeds from maturing Treasury securities to shorter-term issues, so as to gradually reduce the average maturity of our Treasury holdings toward pre-crisis levels, while leaving the aggregate value of those holdings unchanged. At this juncture, however, no decision to change reinvestment policy has been made.
A second way to normalize the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's securities portfolio would be to sell some holdings of agency debt and MBS. Selling agency securities, rather than simply letting them run off, would shrink the portfolio and return it to a composition of all Treasury securities more quickly. FOMC participants broadly agree that sales of agency-related securities should eventually be used as part of the strategy to normalize the portfolio. Such sales will be implemented in accordance with a framework communicated well in advance and will be conducted at a gradual pace. Because changes in the size and composition of the portfolio could affect financial conditions, however, any decisions regarding the commencement or pace of asset sales will be made in light of the Committee's evaluation of the outlook for employment and inflation.
As I noted earlier, the FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. At some point, however, the Committee will need to begin to remove monetary policy accommodation to prevent the buildup of inflationary pressures. When that time comes, the Federal Reserve will act to increase short-term interest rates by raising the interest rate it pays on reserve balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks. To tighten the linkage between the interest rate paid on reserves and other short-term market interest rates, the Federal Reserve may also drain reserves from the banking system. Two tools for draining reserves from the system are being developed and tested and will be ready when needed. First, the Federal Reserve is putting in place the capacity to conduct large reverse repurchase agreements with an expanded set of counterparties. Second, the Federal Reserve has tested a term deposit facility, under which instruments similar to the certificates of deposit that banks offer their customers will be auctioned to depository institutions.
Of course, even as the Federal Reserve continues prudent planning for the ultimate withdrawal of extraordinary monetary policy accommodation, we also recognize that the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain. We will continue to carefully assess ongoing financial and economic developments, and we remain prepared to take further policy actions as needed to foster a return to full utilization of our nation's productive potential in a context of price stability.
Financial Reform Legislation
Last week, the Congress passed landmark legislation to reform the financial system and financial regulation, and the President signed the bill into law this morning. That legislation represents significant progress toward reducing the likelihood of future financial crises and strengthening the capacity of financial regulators to respond to risks that may emerge. Importantly, the legislation encourages an approach to supervision designed to foster the stability of the financial system as a whole as well as the safety and soundness of individual institutions. Within the Federal Reserve, we have already taken steps to strengthen our analysis and supervision of the financial system and systemically important financial firms in ways consistent with the new legislation. In particular, making full use of the Federal Reserve's broad expertise in economics, financial markets, payment systems, and bank supervision, we have significantly changed our supervisory framework to improve our consolidated supervision of large, complex bank holding companies, and we are enhancing the tools we use to monitor the financial sector and to identify potential systemic risks. In addition, the briefings prepared for meetings of the FOMC are now providing increased coverage and analysis of potential risks to the financial system, thus supporting the Federal Reserve's ability to make effective monetary policy and to enhance financial stability.
Much work remains to be done, both to implement through regulation the extensive provisions of the new legislation and to develop the macroprudential approach called for by the Congress. However, I believe that the legislation, together with stronger regulatory standards for bank capital and liquidity now being developed, will place our financial system on a sounder foundation and minimize the risk of a repetition of the devastating events of the past three years.
Thank you. I would be pleased to respond to your questions.
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Jul 21, 2010 at 4:59 PM
Reader Comments (46)
http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2010/07/expected-inflation-curve.html
Worth a quick look
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-fed-charts-that-show-the-true-nightmare-of-our-economy-2010-7#ixzz0uLyTpAkA
Bernanke's 5 remaining bullets...
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/21/293521/el-erian-what-to-expect-from-bernanke%E2%80%99s-report-to-congress/
worth a quick read...
He admitted a recession was POSSIBLE 04/02/2008 (six months after Sesame Street's Elmo):
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/04/02/bernanke-recession-is-possible/
As of last month, he didn't see a double-dip...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-bernanke-doesnt-see-double-dip-recession-2010-06-08?dist=beforebell
I have never seen a man more heralded for not knowing which end is up.
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/dow-long.html
Surely everyone has seen the projections for unemployment, etc., for the next ten years.
Let the FUBAR roll !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ping pong will change it!
RIOTS RIOTS RIOTS
DOOM STORM HITS THE SHIT FAN NEXT
LOL
SCREAM ON..PROUD RANTERS REVOLUTION WHILE NEW ROME STARTS BURNING SOON
U.S. Treasury Bond Fraud and Debt Monetization
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21285.html
@RLR & @S.GOMPERS
Load leap puts on WALL STREET CASINO and prepare for defensive survival, I know you folks are prepared.
(((((((((((((((((BERNANKE CRIMINAL GAME OVER)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
AMEN
Um, excuse me, but didn't "we" pass TARP so that this didn't happen? Moreover, why in the hell were any of the big banks allowed to repay TARP if they can't even make a loan to credit-worthy businesses?
Mr. Bernanke is a mighty smart man, and if he says 2 and 2 make 5, well, who am I to question? But when I was in school, whenever you had 2 and 2 making 5, you had to add them numbers up again. Surely they ain't been tellin' us a lie...?
WAS BERNANKE DRUGGED TODAY?LOL
When America's god of money throws in the towel...
...and the millions who worship him have nowhere else to go, the party is way past over. The loser finally admits he doesn't have a f***ing clue and his 'green shoots' are all but dead. The master of deceit can deceive the fools no more, "I studied the Great Depression and I...well, I'm sorry, but I can't stop the greatest depression from coming. I was sure I could print my way out of this...the country believed in me...but even throwing money out of helicopters won't stop the rampant deflation. I gave billions to Goldman and they promised me they would pump the markets. I am so sorry for what Alan and I did to create this mess...we thought we were gods."
Hang on bears, Dow 6,000 will come faster than anyone can imagine. It may be a few more days, but this thing is about to roll over and die. Bulls will scream for another TRILLION $ in stimulus and bailouts and TARP II will be demanded to rescue the banks who are hiding a Trillion in loan losses. Wall Street and Ben are about to get punished for their evil ways. Unfortunately, the wealthy will walk away laughing while spending their big bonuses, the rest will feel real pain...
(((((((((((((((RIOTS RIOTS RIOTS)))))))))))))))))))))))))))
AMEN
The good folks over at numismaster.com report that, starting on January 1st in 2012, U.S. federal law will require coin and bullion dealers to report to the Internal Revenue Service all gold and silver coin purchases and sales greater than $600. The report is written by David L. Ganz and is headlined "$600 Sale? Get Ready for Tax Form." Apparently this little jewel was an add-on to the national health care legislation.
http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/5209/Precious_Metals
China: The US Is "Insolvent and Faces Bankruptcy"
The common thought amongst even reasonably educated and economically literate Americans is that China is 'stuck with US Treasuries' and has no choice, so it must perform within the status quo and do as the US wishes, or face a ruinous decline in their reserve holdings of US Treasuries.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/china-us-is-insolvent-and-faces.html
No fun, no sin
No bailouts for Joe Sixpack
No wonder it's dark
An' does what he says he'll do.
We'll all be drinkin' free bubble-up,
And eatin' that rainbow stew.
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"My President" my ASS.
Right on Dr. Pitchfork
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrcM5exDxcc
The two men grabbed a quick bite to eat from a food stand but ignored questions from reporters while they ate. Mr Cameron flashed a thumbs-up sign when asked about his lunch.
Hot dog vendor Abdus Salam said the Mr Cameron had his plain while Mr Bloomberg opted for mustard on his.
DB, THERE IS A PROBLEM...
Abdus Salam won a Nobel Prize in physics in 1979 and he died in 1996.
http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/physics/laureates/1979/salam-bio.html
Was this hot dog in Central Park just a pr stunt or secret Bilderberg media code?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/david-cameron/7903652/David-Cameron-treated-to-a-New-York-hot-dog-by-mayor-Michael-Bloomberg.html
I am pretty sure we passed TARP so that the bankers could get their bonuses, have lavish parties, and buy stock in one another at discount prices.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kw8KrHkpr_8&feature=player_embedded
I think I will ride her down Ken, I learned a long time ago, there are 3 types of people in this world. The glass half empty's, the glass half full's, and the majority, the dribble cups.
Going to NZ would be like joining AA, it is for quitters, here is where I belong.
If you remember on the Titanic, the rich got entire boats for just a few people (you would not want them to be uncomfortable, or sit next to a lower order after all), instead of filling them up to save more people. And the band played on...
Well said. I just said have vacation in NZ.LOL
It is always to stay with your own tribe during civil unrest for safety.
Michigan Says Enough To Fed: Takes Matters Into Own Hands As It Starts Using Own Currency…And Gold
http://www.prisonplanet.com/michigan-says-enough-to-fed-takes-matters-into-own-hands-as-it-starts-using-own-currency-and-gold.html
Then you obviously havn't seen GW Bush and Barack Obama.
in 98 i think, If you went some places mostly downtown if you were white you were in trouble.It was bad our old
shop was in the city limits.And i am like Gomp i would rather die fighting than run.Hell im to big to run and hide,LOL
Plus if it does get bad someday we can survive and would be very well armed.
I would like to visit NZ though .
if there is no Business coming in??? Here is a clue Ben you fucking moron people need jobs.!!!
Oops cant help you we sent all them out of the country .But i can print you some money and when you do not pay it back
we will get a bail out and bonus.You do not need a 500 pade Business plan to figure out what it takes to make money.
And were are the jobs coming from that will put the unempoyment down to 7%
I could take a box of fuckin crayons and make graphs and charts and these assholes would think everything is ok.
Look around at all the vacant buildings and empty houses.I once had 7 people earning a decent living here now there is 4
ken...keep improving your comments...don't bash us, laugh or post garbled nonsense...i'm tired of the all caps and push hamburger nonsense...
How much more do you need?
You opened the door and spambot went right in.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDOgGB2Plfo&feature=related
over and over and over and over and over...
I have a plan!
The rebuild America Act of 2010
1. Deport 30 million illegals, shoot to kill on boarder.
2. Ban all in ports, retool all closed us factories, 30 million jobs.
3. Cap the Federal government, Military, Courts, Embassies, Everything needed revert to states, privatize.
4. States issue gold back dollar interest free, abolish corporations legal structures that subvert the us constitution.
5. Hospitals Schools owned by local gov, doctors teachers nurses schooled at there expense for 8 year service contract.
6. abolish all taxes at every level, user pay, volunteers.
7. Recall all military from illegal wars a savings of trillions.
8. within weeks America can and will regain economic stability, trade open after we establish 10% GDP.
9. Buy American, build American, sell American American,s first abolish all unions. isolationism works!
Instead of selling logs to Foreign business, sell lumber. Instead of selling iron ore to Foreign business, sell steel, Instead of selling copper ore to Foreign business, sell copper, etc..
I think you will get the idea.
Better get used to living on your own, the contributors will never allow common sense.
Good post though, much better than the Persian spambot, nice try.
China: "Uh, paldon me, but NO you'le NOT! You come neal our coasts and we'll feel thleatened by it! Maybe kick youl ass loooong time!" Go somewhele else."
U.S.: "Uhh, OK. Can we go from the other side at least?"
China: "OK, you go. But stay fal away flom us ..ol else!"
U.S.: "Thank you, sir!"
You describe a trade game that's been going on for a longtime. We export wood for pennies, it gets processed and sold back to us as roll-top desks (flat shipped, of course) and anything else you can think of at a 10,000% mark-up.
Of course suggesting something like that makes you "protectionist" which is a dirty word to all the psuedo-capitalists who refuse to admit that the Glass-Steagall & uptick rule repeals, removal of leverage limits, unregulated derivative markets etc etc. etc. caused the meltdown.
The one thing they're still sure of is protectionism is evil.
Seeing as how these jack-holes have been wrong about EVERYTHING thusfar, I'm willing to bet they're wrong about protectionism too. But I'm willing to give it a whirl, especially when it comes to natural resources.
http://www.infowars.com/exclusive-jesse-ventura-talks-with-alex-jones-about-government-harassment-of-his-tv-show/
Must watch Video
I'm with you guys. Protect our natural resources. And charge all the countries we trade with the same tariffs and import fees they charge us. Even if some American Corporation owns manufacturing in a foreign country. Make them pay at the same rate they charge the U.S. on anything they export to the U.S.
The dealer where I had my car serviced told me a car made in the U.S. and sold in China cost 25% in tariff and fees. Cars made in China and sold in the U.S. will pay 3% if he's right and this is true, it's wrong and needs to be changed.
Susan Page
USA TODAY
July 23, 2010
WASHINGTON — Battered by high unemployment and record home foreclosures, most Americans seem to have lost faith in another fundamental part of their personal finances: Social Security.
A USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds that a majority of retirees say they expect their current benefits to be cut, a dramatic increase in the number who hold that view. And a record six of 10 non-retirees predict Social Security won’t be able to pay them benefits when they stop working.
Skepticism is highest among the youngest workers: Three-fourths of those 18 to 34 don’t expect to get a Social Security check when they retire.
The public’s views are more dire than the calculations of Social Security’s trustees. Last year, they projected the system would begin running in the red in 2016, as the Baby Boom generation retired, and the trust fund would be exhausted in 2037.
If it is so evil, why do we let every country we enter into trade agreements with do it? we have never entered into a "fair" trade agreement.
"And charge all the countries we trade with the same tariffs and import fees they charge us."
I agree, there is no reason we should deal from the weak hand, the world needs us to buy their cheap and shoddy consumer goods, not the other way around. When no one is left with money to buy their crap, how will that affect the global economy? No one thinks this far in advance.
Shhhh.... you're not supposed to point out the hypocrisy!
I must admit though, I find it amusing when these morally bankrupt crooks pretend that they have ideological reasons for destroying the middle class.
http://www.infowars.com/clash-of-the-classes-does-rush-limbaugh-finally-get-it/
I am glad you are seeing it in a way that does not make one scared or uptight, others should try it. All things happen for a reason...