Nassim Taleb: "The Real Financial Crisis Might Not Even Have Started Yet" (VIDEO)

Video:  Taleb & Ken Rogoff -- June 2010

Strange clip.  Rogoff is there but his responses are cut.  Watch the first 2 minutes then skip to the 6-minute mark.

• "The crisis might not have even started yet.  I hope I'm wrong."

• "Apocalypse now.  Huge risk taken by economists based on made-up economic theory. The banking system is building risks on things we do not understand.  PHD's cannot predict the future."

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Comments

[Z]

Mr. President, will the war in Iraq...???

Come on guys, we're buying shrimp.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyXqJzl6_60

Jonathan, what do you think???

I like turtles.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMNry4PE93Y

[Z]

Great post DB...He is talking about probability and risk. So far, the bankers guessed right that governments would remove their risk and reward their failures.

Taleb is a bit too excited.

The only thing unwinding is Obama in the Vineyard.

[Texas Dar]

Hey, "Mr. Zara", bet ya a case of "Ozark at-a-boys" Beer, it starts next year around July, threw Sep. 2011. Shit should start grinding threw the fan blades of "Crap" by then.

But wait, thats only just the start of the shit yeat to come. It just gets better from thAre on out. Thoes of us that are just "Making Our Bills Now", will start to fall behind by then.

Its all in the card deck. Just as the news said tonight, many more people are more than 4 mo. behind on thier house payments. Just wait till this time next year.

Many more of "US" will join them, and have Done Nothing Wrong.......................We will be Swallow'red up by the increase BHO planed to take us down. Its the Master Plan. Very few can see it comming.

[Smack MacDougal]

Dummies conflate danger with risk.

The true meaning of risk is this: Risk means the money you have bet less any side payments (insurance) that would cover any loss.

Danger means there's a chance that you can lose 100% of your money AT-RISK, less any side payments.

That men believe, falsely, they can estimate the likelihood of a loss (the probability of loss within the next x months) in a open system is a joke. It's far from actuarial science.

If actuarial science were right, then no insurance company would ever find itself losing money because they would have predicted all events with 100% accuracy and 100% knowledge, e.g., the size and devastation scope of hurricanes.

[DailyBail]

Good to see you smack...been awhile...

[Smack MacDougal]

Hey thanks DB guy. I read you daily at least through my feed reader. haven't had much time for comments though. Keep up the truth spreading!

[Z]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iGPgZznQCY

While Khurram Sher claimed on Canadian Idol to have come to Canada from Pakistan in "2K5," that was just part of the joke, along with a thick accent, stereotypical clothing and comical dance moves.

Sher was actually born and raised in Montreal, and spoke both English and French fluently. He is a graduate of the McGill University medical school and completed his pathology residency in June.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/08/27/f-bomb-plot-profile-khurram-sher.html

(AP) TORONTO - A man who appeared on Canada's version of "American Idol" was the third person arrested as part of an alleged plot against targets in Canada and abroad, police said Thursday.

"The arrests have prevented the gathering of bombs and the execution of one or many terrorist attacks," RCMP Chief Supt. Serge Therriault said.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/26/khurram-sher-terrorism-su_n_696159.html