Quantcast
Feeds: Email, RSS & Twitter

Get Our Videos By Email

Powered by Squarespace

 

 

Search The Daily Bail Archive Of 15,000 Videos

SEARCH THE DAILY BAIL

SPONSORED BY  

 

Hank Paulson Is A Criminal - Pass It On

Bernanke's Failures Caught On Tape

"The Federal Reserve Is A Ponzi Scheme"


Get Our Videos By Email

THE FED UNDER FIRE: Must See Clip

Bernanke's Replacement: Happy Hour In Santa Cruz

Must See: National Debt Road Trip

"Of Course We're Not Going To  Payback the Chinese."

Dave Chappelle On White Collar Crime

Carlin: Wall Street Owns Washington

SLIDESHOW - The 11 States Most Likely to Go Bust

SLIDESHOW - 7 Really Big Holes - Don't Miss #7

SLIDESHOW - Molotov Cocktails In Greece

SLIDESHOW - The Sights, Sounds & Women of Texas

SLIDESHOW - Genius Signs From Irish IMF Protest

SLIDESHOW - Egyptian Revolution - Graphic PICS

SLIDESHOW - U.K. Student Riots

SLIDESHOW - Airport Security Cartoons - TSA

Most Recent Comments
Cartoons & Photos
SEARCH
« Obama On Taxes: 'The American People Agree With Me' | Main | MUST SEE: How To Confuse An Obama Supporter »
Monday
Jan142013

How Obama Is Guaranteeing The Next Financial Crisis Will Be MUCH Worse

An empirical look at the DOJ’s policy of non-prosecution.

---

By John Titus, creator of the new documentary Bailout.

Obama Guarantees Next Crisis by Refusing to Prosecute Recidivist Financial Criminals

Bailout is the first documentary to demonstrate the tight linkage between the financial frauds that caused the crisis and the resulting harm to Main Street. The Department of Justice recently ensured that many more will follow.

By announcing that it will not prosecute “systemic” criminal banking enterprises like HSBC, the DOJ has guaranteed (and likely hastened) the arrival of the next fraud-driven crisis.

The DOJ did not even attempt to back up its claim that prosecuting HSBC would "destabilize the global financial system." Indeed, Lanny Breuer, the head of the DOJ's criminal division, said that prosecuting HSBC "could have cost thousands of jobs"--betraying the fact that the DOJ's real concern was the corporate perpetrator rather than its Main Street victims.

Someone should let Breuer in on the fact that white collar criminal prosecutions have a direct and immediate impact on corporate behavior. The only "systemic" risk at work here is the one created by the DOJ itself--by giving financial criminals a free pass.

This is at once apparent from a comparison of the 25-year pattern of criminal financial prosecutions from 1985-2010 with accouting deviancy in reported financial data over the same period. The historical data buttress what common sense tells us: that responding to criminal financial enterprises with a formal regime of non-prosecution is guaranteed to end in disaster.

The 25-year period reaching back to the mid-1980s includes the savings and loan crisis, so that the effect of criminal prosecutions can be highlighted in connection with two separate financial crises. It is a tale of two very different law enforcement regimes.

In the S&L crisis, financial criminals across the U.S. engaged in wholesale looting of thrifts, which set off that crisis. In response, banking regulators built cases for criminal prosecutions and referred them to federal prosecutors. The S&L crisis ended with the criminal convictions of over 1000 high-ranking financial executives, which limited losses to American taxpayers to about $125 billion.

In the current crisis, losses to American taxpayers have--thus far--reached $13 trillion. In response, the DOJ has not criminally prosecuted even a single major financial executive for the fraudulent acts and financial transactions that set off the crisis.

The scale of this anomaly is breathtaking: had prosecutors answered the current crisis with the same legal force they mustered in response to the S&L crisis, well over 100,000 senior level financial executives would be in prison. The actual number is zero (0).

The problem is that U.S. law enforcers are obedient to bankers rather than hornbooks.
When confronted with concerns over its prior bad acts, the financial class inevitably responds with some variation of “we swear we’ll never do it again” or “that just won’t happen again.” Neil Barofsky’s Bailout is replete with such accounts:
  • On why TARP didn’t need any anti-fraud provisions: “the biggest players in these programs—the big banks and investment firms—would never risk their reputations by trying to rip off the government. The reputational damage they’d suffer would be far greater than any potential profit, they argued, so it just wouldn’t happen.” (p. 88)
  • William Dudley, the NY Fed chief, on why the Fed was justified in relying on AAA ratings to support its TALF program, even though they came from the same ratings agencies that put AAA ratings on junk leading into the crisis: “we’re confident they won’t risk being embarrassed again.” (p. 94)
  • Tim Geithner and other Treasury officials on why wouldn’t game the many holes in TALF: “they seemed to honestly believe that their Wall Street brothers wouldn’t take advantage of the flaws in the program to profit at the government’s expense.” (p. 131)

While that nudge-and-wink "just trust us" mentality is not surprising from bankers, it is shocking to see law enforcers adopt the same blind trust in the good word of Wall Street as a matter of policy, but that is exactly what has happened throughout the U.S. financial regulatory apparatus.

Both the S.E.C. (which settles cases with an agreement by the offending firm not to violate the law again) and the DOJ (which enters into non-prosecution agreements to the same effect) bargain away justice by halting cases before a public record of banking improprieties and crimes can ever be made.

But what of it? Does the complete absence of meaningful prosecution (aside from depriving the public of knowledge and information gained from litigation) have any "systemic" effects on corporate malfeasance?

The clear cut answer comes in the form of the chart above, which demonstrates the starkly inverse relationship between the number of criminal referrals by banking regulators and system-wide accounting deviations—a proxy for accounting fraud—from 1985 to 2010.

By “accounting deviations,” we mean deviations by reported corporate financial data from Benford’s law, which is an efficient way to detect prima facie accounting fraud.

According to Benford’s law, the first digit of numbers taken from real-life data sources is not at all a random affair. If it were, the probability of a first-digit 9 would be the same as that for a first-digit 1. In real life (and real data), that’s simply not the case.

Rather, the first digit is 3 times as likely to be 1 than if randomly selected, with 2 slightly less likely, and so on:

Someone trying to cook a company’s books by coming up with numbers out of thin air is highly unlikely to do so in accordance with their natural distribution as taught by Benford. Cooked books, then, can be detected by assessing financial data to the extent they deviate from Benford’s law.

Jialan Wang did exactly this for three decades’ worth of financial data from 20,000 corporations reporting to the S.E.C., which is reflected by the blue line in the graph above.

Wang’s findings are fully consistent with the S&L experience: federal deregulation of savings and loans, which began in 1981, occasioned a massive wave of accounting fraud that set off the S&L crisis—and a massive ramp upward in accounting deviancy as measured by Benford’s law:

Accounting deviancy—and the fraud giving rise to much of it—has continued its ascendancy throughout the current crisis.

The danger inherent in accounting fraud should be obvious enough, but it's worth mentioning with the sudden collapse in 2008 in mind: fraudulent financial data can mask fatally serious problems until reality explodes out from under the surface. It is akin to doctors manipulating their charts to conceal the cancer eating away their patients.

Congress should ask Eric Holder what objective he's serving by encouraging banks like HSBC to engage in and continue their criminal rampages. Like Lanny Breuer and Tim Geithner, of course, Holder will emit a plume of verbiage filled with terms like "systemic."

For once, someone should then ask the real question crackling beneath the surface every story like HSBC: Might it possibly be a very bad mistake to sacrifice the rule of law to appease admitted criminals?

***

John Titus has practiced law in federal courts for more than 15 years.

 

Watch a Trailer for BAILOUT

 

 

Photos by William Banzai7...

PrintView Printer Friendly Version

EmailEmail Article to Friend

Reader Comments (13)

I have a stupid question. If the criminal syndicate calling itself the federal government won't arrest and prosecute these slimy thieves, then why doesn't somebody outside of DC do it?
Dec 19, 2012 at 4:01 PM | Unregistered CommenterBig M
DB, Makes me wonder if Banzai will ever get arrested. The guy is simple outrageous. Just a scream.
Dec 19, 2012 at 4:38 PM | Unregistered CommenterSKINFLINT
Skin

Banazai is safe, living in Hong Kong I think. He was a Wall Street lawyer who quit and moved to the Far East a few years ago. Cheyenne can provide more details on his story.
Dec 19, 2012 at 4:41 PM | Unregistered CommenterDaily Bail
Good for Banzai. I just love his stuff. It is something to behold, that is for sure.
Dec 19, 2012 at 4:48 PM | Unregistered CommenterSKINFLINT
"If the criminal syndicate calling itself the federal government won't arrest and prosecute these slimy thieves, then why doesn't somebody outside of DC do it?"

Greate question. Unfortunately, state prosecutors went along with letting HSBC off with a laughably small fine that will simply be paid from proceeds of more crimes:

"State and federal authorities decided against indicting HSBC in a money-laundering case over concerns that criminal charges could jeopardize one of the world’s largest banks and ultimately destabilize the global financial system."

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/12/10/hsbc-said-to-near-1-9-billion-settlement-over-money-laundering

State law enforcers have a pathetic history of buckling to the wishes of the kleptocracy. The shameful nationwide mortgage settlement by attorneys general who sold out their constituents comes to mind:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/02/mortgage-settlement-as-attorney-general-sellout-deal-is-not-done-and-final-version-guaranteed-to-be-worse-than-advertised.html

SKIN--WB7 lives in a spaceship that hovers just above the jurisdictional orbit of the kleptocracy.
Dec 19, 2012 at 5:08 PM | Registered CommenterCheyenne
If you look carefully in the planet O pic you can see a small spaceship in the left hand corner. I am assuming that Mr. WB7 is located there.
Dec 19, 2012 at 5:28 PM | Unregistered CommenterSKINFLINT
For real though. Just look at the wheels on the plane and the glazed donut on the tail. Chritamighty he is just hilarious. The devil is in the details.
Dec 19, 2012 at 5:31 PM | Unregistered CommenterSKINFLINT
"State and federal authorities decided against indicting HSBC in a money-laundering case over concerns that criminal charges could jeopardize one of the world’s largest banks and ultimately destabilize the global financial system."
Let's say that maybe, just maybe, the local constable is tired of the drug running and gun running and otherwise a crime laden area that is directly attributed to this bank, Is it at all possible that perhaps the local cop could do something. At what the f--king point does the straw break the camels back. AGAIN just another piece that just one ups the one from last week.
Dec 19, 2012 at 5:44 PM | Unregistered CommenterSKINFLINT
Senator Grassley on the obvious point that eludes the DOJ's grasp: criminal prosecutions deter crime; fines do not.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/12/grassley-hsbc-should-face-criminal-charges/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Dec 19, 2012 at 7:40 PM | Registered CommenterCheyenne
Why isn’t Obama demanding corporate welfare cuts?
Commentary: $2.6 trillion could be saved without touching safety net

http://www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/print?guid=A524B3DC-4888-11E2-ACE1-002128040CF6

Why are Cash-Rich Companies Being Subsidized by Tax-Poor Governments?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/12/cash-rich-companies-subsidised/

The media discover the ‘chained CPI’
And the more they dig, the rougher it looks

http://cjr.org/swing_states_project/the_media_discover_the_chained.php?page=all
Dec 20, 2012 at 12:52 AM | Unregistered CommenterLadyLiberty
Great charts and information John, more evidence that rewarding bad behavior only encourages more bad behavior while punishing bad behavior tends to tighten up a few sphincters.



"Greate question. Unfortunately, state prosecutors went along with letting HSBC off with a laughably small fine that will simply be paid from proceeds of more crimes:"

Ohio was trying, but then the voters elected the Bankster approved candidate to the AG office and it all just sort of crumbled away after that.
Dec 20, 2012 at 4:40 AM | Unregistered CommenterS. Gompers

PostPost a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.

My response is on my own website »
Author Email (optional):
Author URL (optional):
Post:
 
All HTML will be escaped. Hyperlinks will be created for URLs automatically.