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« Bailout News CNBC Video: Nouriel Roubini Says Recession Will Last Through 2010 and Calls For Temporary Nationalization Of The Failed Banks | Main | Bailout News Congressional Video: Senator Jim Bunning Issues A Stern Warning To Fed Vice-Chairman Donald Kohn About AIG »
Tuesday
Mar102009

Bailout News CNBC Videos: Congressman Barney Frank On The Uptick Rule And Mark To Market

Less than 2-minute clip from Barney Frank. 

The uptick rule change will NOT work because trading happens too quickly on too many independent exchanges.  I can't even imagine how it will be implemented and enforced.  Does an uptick on ARCA satisfy the requirement if I'm trading on a different exchange?

I'll find the link later, but the reason this rule was overturned in 2007 was the problem I mentioned above.  Modern stock trading occurs electronically on several large exchanges that operate independently of one another.  In a nutshell, there is ALWAYS an uptick somehwere.

I suppose it's natural to look for a scapegoat when stocks are falling and 401Ks are shrinking, but focusing on short sellers is a mistake.  Stock prices mirror profits and profits are falling.  The S&P 500 combined earnings for 2009 will come in between $40-50 this year.  Slap an appropriate recession PE of 10 onto those numbers and you'll see why the market has much further to fall.

I'm sorry to say it, but too many professional and retail investors are clueless.  From Bill Miller and Ken Fisher to the guy down the street.  Not enough people understand the massive destruction of corporate profits we are seeing and how this automatically translates into lower equity prices.

Do not fight the tape and do not under-estimate the trend of falling earnings.  And most definitely, do not blame short sellers for our market declines.  It's profits, people.  And nothing else.

It's my birthday, so cut me some slack on posting today.  Happy birthday to David Faber as well.

After the jump, we have a Fast Money market-close clip from CNBC with Dylan Ratigan and Jon Najarian.

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Reader Comments (21)

Happy birthday DB. Now go relax.
Mar 10, 2009 at 5:22 PM | Unregistered CommenterKansas is fucked
You and Faber the same day. Hmm. Something smells fishy. Could this site be the outgrowth of Faber's hatred of working with bimbos like erin burnett and maria and trish regan and all the others?

That would be funny.
Mar 10, 2009 at 5:24 PM | Unregistered CommenterPuzo
Happy Birthday. How many years young?
Mar 10, 2009 at 5:26 PM | Unregistered CommenterAngry Jones
Happy b-day to my favorite anonymous revolutionary writer. Do tell. How young are you today?
Mar 10, 2009 at 5:27 PM | Unregistered CommenterGenevieve
Thanks for working hard on these issues everyday. Now, go have a porterhouse and a beer and celebrate what you have built here. Congrats.
Mar 10, 2009 at 5:30 PM | Unregistered CommenterPrince Alwaeed Lost All His Money
I have never posted before but I stop by everyday to see who's getting smoked out in public. Keep it the fun and happy birthday.
Mar 10, 2009 at 5:32 PM | Unregistered Commenterguest
Ah, another day older and a new number attached to your name.

The best thing about growing older is that all your friends do it with you.

Celebrate tonight and don't think about all of this for at least a few hours.
Mar 10, 2009 at 5:34 PM | Unregistered CommenterBig Macke
Happy Birthday and thanks for what you do. It's appreciated by all your readers.
Mar 10, 2009 at 5:36 PM | Unregistered CommenterZeitgeist
Happy Birthday!!

Were you aware that March 10th 2000 was the top of the NAZ, a level likely never to be seen again until 2025 or thereabouts?

An ominous day in market history.
Mar 10, 2009 at 5:39 PM | Unregistered CommenterP-Owed
Happy Birthday DB.
Mar 10, 2009 at 5:40 PM | Unregistered CommenterBotKilla
The years start going by quickly when you get to be my age. I'm a recent senior and I can remember my teens so clearly. Enjoy everyday and make the most of your time here. Make a difference with your life.

Thanks Steve for trying to make a difference with your work.
Mar 10, 2009 at 5:44 PM | Unregistered CommenterAnon
Happy Birthday!!! Pisces, huh?

From your writing, I never would have guessed. Though it does explain your sensitivity to some things.
Mar 10, 2009 at 5:49 PM | Unregistered CommenterNicole
Happy Birthday.

I belong to the pragmatic school. Rules don't have to seem fair to everyone or satisfy every possible objection. I think taming short sales is worthwhile.

The instant uptick rule won't work. But why not have a daily or weekly one? i.e. You can't short if the average sale price was down the previous day or week. The electronic information systems of today can easily produce the statistics needed.

Or devise some other variation which would avoid the instant uptick while making shorts subject to facts that can't be manipulated. The smartest guys in the room should be able to figure one out. Or don't they do such work anymore?
Mar 10, 2009 at 6:16 PM | Unregistered CommenterK
Happy birthday DailyBail! Here's to your successful blog. Good health and happiness to you.
Mar 10, 2009 at 8:11 PM | Unregistered Commenterspideydouble
You better hurry and try to hit the Treasury Cash Pipe......."Timmmmaaayyyy" will make sure to save you a drag since it's your B-Day and all.....Happy B-Day.....
Mar 10, 2009 at 9:45 PM | Unregistered CommenterAin't Bullshittin'
@everyone

Thanks for the birthday wishes.

Here is some discussion of the uptick rule.

http://www.businessinsider.com/barney-frank-promises-to-bring-back-uptick-rule-within-1-month-2009-3
Mar 10, 2009 at 11:23 PM | Registered CommenterDailyBail
And to save myself from having to write it out myself, I am lifting a few comments from someone on 1 of the clusterstock articles.

I am NOT against the concept of making things fair, I just understand that this will not help. Perhaps, once it is implemented, and the market keeps falling, people will understand that the lack of an uptick rule has nothing to do with the market decline.

"
Hari_Seldon said:
Mar. 10, 1:49 PM
I can't wait for this loser to come back in a month and say he realized that, without changing the mechanisms of the market, such a rule could not be implemented.

Am I allowed to short a stock on the NASDAQ if it upticks on NYSE or ARCA but not on NASDAQ?

If something gets sold on the ARCA as a result of an uptick before I can execute on the ISEG am I still allowed to short?

What is an "uptick"? Can I put in a sham bid for 100 shares into NASDAQ at $0.0001 more in price and then short 100,000 shares at NYSE because the last trade was "up"? "
Mar 10, 2009 at 11:29 PM | Registered CommenterDailyBail
"
Hari_Seldon said:
Mar. 10, 5:15 PM
Assassin: There have been a lot of changes transitioning to electronic since 2007. It isn't going to be an easy task to "re-implement the uptick rule". When the three questions I mentioned in my post are addressed, I'll change my mind.

By forcing sellers of puts to wait for an uptick the liquidity of the market is greatly reduced. If I am not certain that I can hedge out the risk, I'm going to widen up the bid ask spread to a point that compensates me for the additional risk. How is this good for anyone?

I personally am betting this doesn't happen "in a month" once they get into the nitty gritty. It is great for grandstanding but not much else. "
Mar 10, 2009 at 11:30 PM | Registered CommenterDailyBail
And once more for the record. Stock prices are down because profits are down. It's that simple.

The Dow is headed to 5000 and the SPOOS are on their way to 500.

It's simple. We are in a recession. A PE of 10 is great for a recession. And the S&P 500 is going to earn a combined $45-50 per share this year.

So slap a 10 multiple onto those earning and you have a SPOOS of 500.
Mar 10, 2009 at 11:33 PM | Registered CommenterDailyBail

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